TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes49c974.44$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.7142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes61c862.37$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.175,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes9c530.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.6828718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e7c…411abacked No53c517.21$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.031650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c468.49$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.1417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed No9c432.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5816832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes13c414.1$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3442315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes25c387.05$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.951,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes24c381.71$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.9217135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c356.45$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.684,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c344.67$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes24c300.4$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.4918534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes59c300$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes28c297.83$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes27c294.06$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.773441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde2e…25e8backed No8c286.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes19c286.34$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.191,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No55c268.3$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.31,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ee…5ba7backed Yes17c264.68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.61837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+159.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9e…c08ebacked Yes23c241.01$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.64119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes69c224.64$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.658643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes29c218.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.2284124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb999…b00dbacked Yes27c207.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.071618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc80…56a7backed Yes17c199.48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5716412.2%20 W · 144 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe951…ea77backed No59c197.06$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.11850%9 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9115…f59cbacked No55c192.69$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed6…4947backed No10c191.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes19c180$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d3…e2bcbacked Yes23c174.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.171428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes51c169.18$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.321,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c165.61$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes22c161.47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4114829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes57c156.51$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.616240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf74…d478backed No73c154.98$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.14955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick75cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes24c147.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes17c146.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.668013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes67c143.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.257758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e84…659dbacked No68c143.24$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.753473.5%25 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…87bdbacked Yes68c142.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No12c138.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.649122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c136.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.361,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes19c132.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.14447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes22c128.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.831050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No80c123.23$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5810154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes21c122.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe668…917ebacked No77c122.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bf…4512backed Yes27c113.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.44933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c111.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed Yes21c109.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8113167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c106.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.852,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed Yes20c105.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.589273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes26c103.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.586625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes18c100.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.444062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes35c100.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.783256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.51,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8323738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde72…b5b1backed Yes13c99.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9921131.8%67 W · 144 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes25c99.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.969445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes29c98.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.945846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c97.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.332,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes33c96.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7812147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes17c95.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.373023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No77c95$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6828737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes20c93.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes40c93.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0339535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes18c91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.288531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes24c90.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.589626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c89.27$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c88.78$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes20c88.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.873,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes14c85.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.35419.8%4 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes18c83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.982,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes20c82.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6611223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c82.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes23c77.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.662623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No74c77.03$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes32c76.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…393dbacked Yes48c75.83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes27c75.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.992,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff38…1d79backed Yes30c74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+238.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c72.55$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.487,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes26c70.54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.25543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes21c70.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.51225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes15c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes27c69.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes21c68.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.262846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes25c66.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.138432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes61c63.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.037445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes21c60.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes21c60$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.35050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c59.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.262,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ef…3c3abacked No17c59.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.186854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes49c57.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3512330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec2…8988backed Yes65c57.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes27c55.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5613537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes28c55.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8126434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No75c51.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6333567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c50.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.585,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.