MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7c1395a3c68a118d207f4cd90c02c4ef3c6883f24f7452e12e990abf826a39a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 35,699$17,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,563.42 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 52c | 11,438$5,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,947.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…dc87backed Athletics | 29c | 5,800$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 52c | 4,284$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Athletics | 52c | 3,797$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.39 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Athletics | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Athletics | 52c | 1,018$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.1 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 606.66$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 52c | 362.09$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Athletics | 52c | 360$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 352.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 52c | 300.79$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Athletics | 52c | 270$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Athletics | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 166.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 133.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 68.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Athletics | 52c | 63.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Athletics | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Athletics | 52c | 54.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Athletics | 52c | 37.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Athletics | 52c | 32.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 22.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 22.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Athletics | 52c | 19.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-7.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.