MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6dfb7a577bee949f680940d6097b3333c0f19f107a46e2b622b48325659f472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 34,022$15,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,981.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 46c | 26,987$12,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,573.07 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 6,164$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,377.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 3,499$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.57 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 39c | 3,409$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 2,312$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.6 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 68c | 1,639$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.07 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 1,629$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.66 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 46c | 1,595$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.3 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 54c | 1,444$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.58 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 34c | 1,171$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 54c | 949.82$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 693.38$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…aa4fbacked Under | 8c | 577.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 66c | 564$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.24 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Over | 61c | 482$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.98 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 474.74$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 31c | 470$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.3 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 13c | 440$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 44c | 390.21$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.52 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 50c | 298.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 278.58$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 54c | 246.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 54c | 242.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 38c | 216.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 33c | 159.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 155.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 36c | 149.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 13c | 137.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 46c | 124.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 43c | 90.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Over | 62c | 79.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 58c | 77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 35c | 71.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 38c | 61.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 624 | 54.2%338 W · 286 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 55c | 53.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 46c | 45.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…47eebacked Under | 74c | 45.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…05c5backed Under | 43c | 43.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 56c | 40.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 42c | 33.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…dab4backed Under | 31c | 32.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 55c | 28.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 37c | 27.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 38c | 26.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaa…0585backed Under | 40c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 54c | 19.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 65c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 67c | 17.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…ef3abacked Over | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-7.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.