MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7d0e24089ec0fa3e14c344c02394b8e23ae1ef1e7c4a9318cb3ceda37493416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 8,888$3,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,748.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 6,631$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 6,175$3,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 2,455$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.57 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 1,679$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.37 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 1,221$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.28 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 999.98$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 790.1$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 701.12$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 619.57$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 579.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 510.5$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.86 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 348.19$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 320$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…7d39backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 179.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 163.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 156.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 142.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 130.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 130.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 123$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 84.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 84.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 81.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 69.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 64.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 59.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 56.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 51.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 50.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 39.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 33.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 29.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 24.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.