MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ab5c7c4f3516fa7568dadd6d6d3df0d8c1499a920432d47645728b09f81b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Baltimore Orioles | 12c | 4,244$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +536.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 2,155$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.68 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 1,511$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.92 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 1,022$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.86 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 501.16$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 261.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Baltimore Orioles | 11c | 216.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…a25dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 205$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 190.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 168.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 126.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 116.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…f517backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 111.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 104.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 88.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Baltimore Orioles | 14c | 88.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 84.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 62.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 59.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…4933backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 39.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 36.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 36.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 23.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.