TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed Over51c99,000$50,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,608.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+60.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c57,281$28,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,109.384,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under49c12,624$6,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,185.8528350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under46c7,102$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.78,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under49c5,284$2,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.023,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Under51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under48c2,596$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.121,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Under49c2,456$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.445257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under49c2,444$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.0711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over31c2,050$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.4230647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed Under6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202119%4 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick9cpaid+97.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…d922backed Under6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204818.8%9 W · 39 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick7cpaid+162.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over66c1,821$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.745,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c1,791$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.51,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under49c1,554$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.339,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under49c1,500$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7411,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over51c1,486$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.271,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c1,400$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.116,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under50c1,110$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.838353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under49c1,068$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.1828154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under47c939$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.568,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ded…3350backed Over52c892.31$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.318140.7%33 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under3c778.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.081085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under69c691.33$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.0412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under49c651.36$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1747350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over47c638.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.292,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under49c529.97$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.692,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Under50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Over50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25038455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x914a…920fbacked Over51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.24959.2%29 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8081…95cabacked Over10c439.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.991833.3%6 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+536.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Over52c408$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.848856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under46c399.08$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4347743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under54c379.91$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.795,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under33c245.45$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b6b…6b56backed Under49c205$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.452937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39c5…5a2fbacked Under41c201.95$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.251942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10026860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0838252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under50c195$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under56c190.66$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.16,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under53c190.4$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.711,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcadd…c7e6backed Under8c183.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.994139%16 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under49c154.61$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7632857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under61c148.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.853,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under33c131$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2377752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under69c117.65$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.071,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under33c111.27$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.721,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6210…4fb1backed Under49c102$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9814759.9%88 W · 59 L+14.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf16…b409backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Over52c98.18$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3715857.6%91 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac15…75a4backed Over52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.156051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.731,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under50c83.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.632,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under65c78.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.992,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2855847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over49c58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.582,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over56c58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Under78c53.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.77569.3%52 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under71c50.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.782,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over51c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.581,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee8…7406backed Under68c47.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.325743.9%25 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over43c40.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.311,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Under49c40.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9914057.9%81 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under57c40.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.242,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd03b…184cbacked Over64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.428453.9%153 W · 131 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under58c33.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.396,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under69c31.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.731,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Over51c30.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.144953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under71c30.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.711,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under51c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1699744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over38c26.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8172655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61a0…0ae9backed Under49c26.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under58c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.544,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over49c24.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.461,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb549…ae63backed Under49c22.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Under48c21.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2983053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1016251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7e77backed Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1392…04d7backed Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1019248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…772abacked Over52c19.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3210759.8%64 W · 43 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…5934backed Under77c18.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.616248.4%30 W · 32 L-15.4wins-0.25per pick73cpaid-33.7%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under76c18.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.874,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.