Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Walton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7decba1b7f4264368523e2e0c2e4d99501080a18629271db427d056e7312abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Walton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Walton | 2c | 15,047$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.16 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Walton | 1c | 14,990$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…3fa1backed Walton | 2c | 13,892$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…6c59backed Walton | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Walton | 2c | 6,092$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Walton | 1c | 5,909$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Walton | 5c | 5,820$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Walton | 1c | 5,555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Walton | 1c | 5,090$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked Walton | 1c | 5,010$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb788…2b73backed Walton | 2c | 4,913$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +450.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Walton | 2c | 4,652$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Walton | 2c | 4,431$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Walton | 1c | 3,551$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Walton | 1c | 3,037$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…b716backed Walton | 2c | 2,666$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 92 | 64.1%59 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Walton | 1c | 2,628$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Walton | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Walton | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Walton | 8c | 1,874$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Walton | 3c | 1,750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Walton | 1c | 1,588$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Walton | 2c | 1,391$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Walton | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Walton | 1c | 1,067$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Walton | 2c | 1,039$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Walton | 1c | 1,031$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Walton | 2c | 1,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Walton | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9de…d20cbacked Walton | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…b81fbacked Walton | 1c | 913.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Walton | 1c | 859.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Walton | 1c | 806.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed Walton | 3c | 730.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Walton | 2c | 583.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb86a…9490backed Walton | 2c | 565.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Walton | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Waltonthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Walton: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Walton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs WaltonAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.