Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7fc8ed61e88dde3092ef5f57181e53ec49e68008ad5eff463b21fe32b41994d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof RE.Arise, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked RE.Arise | 47c | 10,015$4,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,664.56 | 1,202 | 42.8%514 W · 688 L | +38.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed summer bear | 75c | 7,482$5,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.16 | 486 | 50.8%247 W · 239 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed summer bear | 52c | 6,019$3,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.56 | 218 | 56%122 W · 96 L | +19.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed RE.Arise | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 307 | 52.1%160 W · 147 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed summer bear | 32c | 4,884$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,321.5 | 486 | 57.4%279 W · 207 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked RE.Arise | 73c | 4,223$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.2 | 809 | 55.9%452 W · 357 L | +21.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…1fb0backed summer bear | 48c | 4,200$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.19 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise | 72c | 2,608$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.43 | 1,207 | 59.3%716 W · 491 L | +64.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed summer bear | 61c | 2,127$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.07 | 202 | 51.5%104 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked summer bear | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 704 | 35.4%249 W · 455 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed RE.Arise | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…5e5ebacked RE.Arise | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed RE.Arise | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…7c42backed summer bear | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.99 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked summer bear | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.41 | 927 | 56.5%524 W · 403 L | +79.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked summer bear | 28c | 1,246$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.03 | 970 | 42.2%409 W · 561 L | -20.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…d897backed summer bear | 46c | 1,119$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.2 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…bd22backed summer bear | 74c | 1,101$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.78 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise | 70c | 1,087$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.58 | 444 | 38.7%172 W · 272 L | -43.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed RE.Arise | 65c | 1,060$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.98 | 333 | 41.1%137 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed summer bear | 40c | 1,046$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.78 | 925 | 53.6%496 W · 429 L | +51.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed RE.Arise | 2c | 1,034$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 343 | 2.9%10 W · 333 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked RE.Arise | 75c | 993.99$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.94 | 621 | 55.9%347 W · 274 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed summer bear | 63c | 766.22$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.95 | 183 | 49.7%91 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…3da9backed RE.Arise | 72c | 728.54$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.55 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…22acbacked summer bear | 43c | 712.13$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.51 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked RE.Arise | 77c | 557.8$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.76 | 216 | 60.6%131 W · 85 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed summer bear | 36c | 499.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.5 | 394 | 41.1%162 W · 232 L | -18.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked summer bear | 34c | 495.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.15 | 328 | 49.4%162 W · 166 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked RE.Arise | 66c | 455.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked summer bear | 35c | 451.66$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.33 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked summer bear | 75c | 433.63$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48f…e9b9backed RE.Arise | 60c | 425.68$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.41 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…872ebacked RE.Arise | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked summer bear | 28c | 410.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 287 | 45.6%131 W · 156 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…7275backed RE.Arise | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked RE.Arise | 72c | 364.75$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.68 | 676 | 48.4%327 W · 349 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…7f23backed summer bear | 69c | 360$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed summer bear | 41c | 310.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed RE.Arise | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 266 | 53.8%143 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…d318backed summer bear | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 52c | 298.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 906 | 38.4%348 W · 558 L | -40.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…c059backed RE.Arise | 64c | 289.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed RE.Arise | 68c | 275.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked RE.Arise | 60c | 259.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…f4b8backed summer bear | 71c | 253.67$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5cc0backed summer bear | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…b0b5backed summer bear | 27c | 225.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.93 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde4…6453backed RE.Arise | 70c | 224.57$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed summer bear | 39c | 221.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked RE.Arise | 39c | 213.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed RE.Arise | 41c | 210$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed RE.Arise | 76c | 201.86$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed summer bear | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -17.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 41c | 197.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.69 | 1,482 | 48.9%724 W · 758 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 36c | 195.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 1,723 | 41.3%711 W · 1,012 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed summer bear | 25c | 181$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed RE.Arise | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…f3fcbacked summer bear | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked RE.Arise | 35c | 132.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…8b29backed RE.Arise | 72c | 126.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 152 | 61.2%93 W · 59 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…ef1fbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 126.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…1799backed RE.Arise | 35c | 118.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked summer bear | 69c | 118.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…0d49backed RE.Arise | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed summer bear | 22c | 110.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked summer bear | 35c | 103.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 619 | 49.9%309 W · 310 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed summer bear | 26c | 102.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 181 | 37%67 W · 114 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked summer bear | 77c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…f280backed RE.Arise | 42c | 92.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 87.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 911 | 38.2%348 W · 563 L | -45.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed RE.Arise | 72c | 83.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise | 71c | 81.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 833 | 45.1%376 W · 457 L | -28.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed summer bear | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | +10.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked summer bear | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed summer bear | 27c | 78.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 295 | 50.5%149 W · 146 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise | 56c | 77.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 545 | 38.5%210 W · 335 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RE.Arise | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 657 | 47.8%314 W · 343 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise | 60c | 73.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 169 | 58%98 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7585…dcb3backed summer bear | 25c | 73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked RE.Arise | 46c | 69.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 319 | 50.8%162 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed RE.Arise | 50c | 68.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 220 | 44.1%97 W · 123 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…b7c1backed summer bear | 34c | 66.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f8…b0e5backed summer bear | 24c | 64.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…24d9backed RE.Arise | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0db…d489backed RE.Arise | 53c | 58.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf848…8c59backed summer bear | 50c | 56.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed RE.Arise | 65c | 55.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 244 | 43%105 W · 139 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear | 46c | 52.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed summer bear | 70c | 52.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 432 | 60%259 W · 173 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed RE.Arise | 72c | 52.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked RE.Arise | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 688 | 47.4%326 W · 362 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked RE.Arise | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…9d88backed summer bear | 70c | 49.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed RE.Arise | 42c | 48.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -17.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0bffbacked summer bear | 36c | 45.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2f…2586backed RE.Arise | 72c | 39.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear | 28c | 37.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 1,914 | 47.6%911 W · 1,003 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 31.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs summer bear (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs summer bear - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.