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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: RE.Arise vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
summer bearof RE.Arise, summer bear
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,049

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked RE.Arise47c10,015$4,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,664.561,20242.8%514 W · 688 L+38.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed summer bear75c7,482$5,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.1648650.8%247 W · 239 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed summer bear52c6,019$3,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,861.5621856%122 W · 96 L+19.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed RE.Arise50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00030752.1%160 W · 147 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed summer bear32c4,884$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,321.548657.4%279 W · 207 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked RE.Arise73c4,223$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.280955.9%452 W · 357 L+21.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed summer bear48c4,200$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.1912058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise72c2,608$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.431,20759.3%716 W · 491 L+64.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed summer bear61c2,127$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.0720251.5%104 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked summer bear28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9970435.4%249 W · 455 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e7…91a2backed RE.Arise2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b0…5e5ebacked RE.Arise2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+426.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e50…0ea8backed RE.Arise2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed summer bear31c1,500$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.997655.3%42 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked summer bear43c1,400$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.4192756.5%524 W · 403 L+79.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked summer bear28c1,246$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.0397042.2%409 W · 561 L-20.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed summer bear46c1,119$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.212948.1%62 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e4…bd22backed summer bear74c1,101$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.783470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise70c1,087$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.5844438.7%172 W · 272 L-43.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed RE.Arise65c1,060$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.9833341.1%137 W · 196 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed summer bear40c1,046$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.7892553.6%496 W · 429 L+51.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed RE.Arise2c1,034$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.993432.9%10 W · 333 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked RE.Arise75c993.99$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.9462155.9%347 W · 274 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed summer bear63c766.22$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9518349.7%91 W · 92 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed RE.Arise72c728.54$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.552281.8%18 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick63cpaid+33.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked summer bear43c712.13$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.515154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked RE.Arise77c557.8$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.7621660.6%131 W · 85 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed summer bear36c499.48$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.539441.1%162 W · 232 L-18.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked summer bear34c495.68$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.1532849.4%162 W · 166 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked RE.Arise66c455.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0543546.7%203 W · 232 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked summer bear35c451.66$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3319745.2%89 W · 108 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked summer bear75c433.63$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0913548.1%65 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed RE.Arise60c425.68$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.416053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e18…872ebacked RE.Arise72c416.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked summer bear28c410.72$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.828745.6%131 W · 156 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed RE.Arise29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1166547.7%31 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked RE.Arise72c364.75$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6867648.4%327 W · 349 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…7f23backed summer bear69c360$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.23455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed summer bear41c310.23$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6314248.6%69 W · 73 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed RE.Arise57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17126653.8%143 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x230b…d318backed summer bear71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise52c298.36$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5890638.4%348 W · 558 L-40.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…c059backed RE.Arise64c289.98$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.561225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038951.9%202 W · 187 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed RE.Arise68c275.63$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.431968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked RE.Arise60c259.33$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.612547.2%59 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda29…f4b8backed summer bear71c253.67$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.561258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0a…5cc0backed summer bear32c250$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1703336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed summer bear27c225.59$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9320743%89 W · 118 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde4…6453backed RE.Arise70c224.57$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1575550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed summer bear39c221.15$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.110757.9%62 W · 45 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked RE.Arise39c213.74$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3610749.5%53 W · 54 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed RE.Arise41c210$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.110548.6%51 W · 54 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+38.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed RE.Arise76c201.86$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1544240.5%17 W · 25 L-6.4wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed summer bear71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5824939.4%98 W · 151 L-17.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked summer bear41c197.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.691,48248.9%724 W · 758 L+32.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear36c195.29$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.91,72341.3%711 W · 1,012 L-43.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed summer bear25c181$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.757848.7%38 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed RE.Arise41c180$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.813844.9%62 W · 76 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1028…f3fcbacked summer bear38c160$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.23743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked RE.Arise35c132.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.671513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f7c…8b29backed RE.Arise72c126.58$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1415261.2%93 W · 59 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86ee…ef1fbacked RE.Arise79c126.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007965.8%52 W · 27 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed RE.Arise35c118.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.647240.3%29 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb5…819abacked summer bear69c118.13$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.848248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x55c6…0d49backed RE.Arise68c117.65$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed summer bear22c110.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.423132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked summer bear35c103.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1861949.9%309 W · 310 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed summer bear26c102.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.918137%67 W · 114 L-14.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked summer bear77c97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.731764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe481…f280backed RE.Arise42c92.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.221421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise45c87.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7191138.2%348 W · 563 L-45.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed RE.Arise72c83.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise71c81.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9683345.1%376 W · 457 L-28.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed summer bear39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.211363.7%72 W · 41 L+10.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked summer bear49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.833452.7%176 W · 158 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed summer bear27c78.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4829550.5%149 W · 146 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise56c77.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3454538.5%210 W · 335 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed RE.Arise16c76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1965747.8%314 W · 343 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise60c73.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4416958%98 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7585…dcb3backed summer bear25c73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.751643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked RE.Arise46c69.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9531950.8%162 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed RE.Arise50c68.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3422044.1%97 W · 123 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2591…b7c1backed summer bear34c66.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9112244.3%54 W · 68 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f8…b0e5backed summer bear24c64.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.442259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x941a…24d9backed RE.Arise79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504045%18 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-24.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0db…d489backed RE.Arise53c58.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf848…8c59backed summer bear50c56.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.531428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed RE.Arise65c55.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3624443%105 W · 139 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear46c52.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.432,39547.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed summer bear70c52.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5543260%259 W · 173 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a00…59e2backed RE.Arise72c52.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.462080%16 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked RE.Arise21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3168847.4%326 W · 362 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked RE.Arise43c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3313033.1%43 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02d3…9d88backed summer bear70c49.02$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.714077.5%31 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed RE.Arise42c48.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.955010%5 W · 45 L-17.5wins-0.35per pick45cpaid-83.7%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0xe979…0bffbacked summer bear36c45.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c2f…2586backed RE.Arise72c39.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.11978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear28c37.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.321,91447.6%911 W · 1,003 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked RE.Arise45c31.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.286121.3%13 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.