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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: RE.Arise vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, summer bear
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked RE.Arise59c10,468$6,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,276.9590741.2%374 W · 533 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked summer bear27c10,078$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.831,20242.8%514 W · 688 L+38.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise72c8,306$5,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.231,20759.3%716 W · 491 L+64.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed summer bear38c3,508$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.6612058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed summer bear25c2,897$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.6770433.1%233 W · 471 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…9536backed summer bear42c2,293$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.761050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked summer bear28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56070435.4%249 W · 455 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked summer bear41c1,703$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.35154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed summer bear2c1,699$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.613432.9%10 W · 333 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked RE.Arise76c1,601$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.537160.4%224 W · 147 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked summer bear18c1,504$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6897042.2%409 W · 561 L-20.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed RE.Arise62c1,500$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.4158548.5%284 W · 301 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed summer bear39c1,464$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.481,12636.2%408 W · 718 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked summer bear38c1,338$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.6568847.4%326 W · 362 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb14…49b2backed summer bear31c1,145$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.096341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed summer bear27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018851.6%97 W · 91 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed RE.Arise72c999.99$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2651069.4%354 W · 156 L+34.8wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed RE.Arise73c987.68$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26320251.5%104 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked summer bear36c963.47$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.541752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear24c919.78$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5190638.4%348 W · 558 L-40.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked summer bear44c743.34$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.7713548.1%65 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec1…9a95backed summer bear29c644.77$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.666033.3%20 W · 40 L-7.3wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-33.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed RE.Arise65c586.59$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3126653.8%143 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear22c556.04$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.451,72341.3%711 W · 1,012 L-43.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked summer bear28c543.03$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5819745.2%89 W · 108 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed summer bear39c499.93$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9439441.1%162 W · 232 L-18.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed summer bear48c489.6$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.0118349.7%91 W · 92 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RE.Arise78c447.27$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6192553.6%496 W · 429 L+51.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed RE.Arise71c438.68$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8312948.1%62 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed summer bear10c437.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7113844.9%62 W · 76 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f7c…8b29backed RE.Arise73c409.58$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5915261.2%93 W · 59 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked summer bear26c378.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8428745.6%131 W · 156 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed summer bear37c353.09$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6610855.6%60 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked RE.Arise56c352.49$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.3343546.7%203 W · 232 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45da…72febacked summer bear28c344.73$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.263537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed RE.Arise75c319.81$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.957655.3%42 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed summer bear15c300.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1644438.7%172 W · 272 L-43.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked summer bear10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010749.5%53 W · 54 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked RE.Arise60c299.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7312547.2%59 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed summer bear28c296.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8238951.9%202 W · 187 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked RE.Arise78c285.42$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6992756.5%524 W · 403 L+79.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed summer bear35c273.39$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.996240.3%25 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfea5…966fbacked RE.Arise75c269.71$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.761376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed RE.Arise72c265.79$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0a…5cc0backed summer bear38c262$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.563336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked summer bear25c253.48$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.221513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ace…3038backed RE.Arise71c219.65$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7623862.2%148 W · 90 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfde4…6453backed RE.Arise75c213.11$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.115550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3685…6d99backed summer bear48c209$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.326440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed summer bear27c208.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.884240.5%17 W · 25 L-6.4wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed summer bear41c193.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1924939.4%98 W · 151 L-17.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked summer bear24c188.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51,48248.9%724 W · 758 L+32.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked summer bear10c176.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.696121.3%13 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf848…8c59backed summer bear47c166.23$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.661428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e91…391dbacked summer bear38c155.53$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe979…0bffbacked summer bear23c154.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1028…f3fcbacked RE.Arise69c150$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.023743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked summer bear16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413033.1%43 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed RE.Arise74c135.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.493770.3%26 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked summer bear22c128$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1679741.9%334 W · 463 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c9…f4dabacked summer bear38c126.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked summer bear22c117.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7954538.5%210 W · 335 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c2f…2586backed RE.Arise79c113.92$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.221978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2591…b7c1backed summer bear25c113.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8912244.3%54 W · 68 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed summer bear26c102.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2759756.4%337 W · 260 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe302…a986backed summer bear37c96.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.882766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed summer bear27c95.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2618137%67 W · 114 L-14.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed RE.Arise75c94.75$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.822766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2613…3dccbacked RE.Arise73c91.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick66cpaid+38.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0286…f61dbacked RE.Arise63c83.91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7d…f754backed RE.Arise78c79.86$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.88875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07df…9f0cbacked summer bear38c79.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.16556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed summer bear37c75.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.139550.5%48 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked RE.Arise72c75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2147858.6%280 W · 198 L+24.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a9c…fd70backed summer bear43c69.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise69c65.8$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6383345.1%376 W · 457 L-28.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed RE.Arise64c60.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9424443%105 W · 139 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked RE.Arise72c55.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.773473.5%25 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed RE.Arise64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1853851.3%276 W · 262 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…7d5fbacked RE.Arise65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55052%26 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ee…66ebbacked RE.Arise69c45.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.061776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked summer bear37c45.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6610042%42 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear31c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,91447.6%911 W · 1,003 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0db…d489backed RE.Arise70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked RE.Arise79c38.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.24072.5%29 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x626a…3d36backed RE.Arise74c37.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.678161.7%50 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed RE.Arise58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2821856%122 W · 96 L+19.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked summer bear35c32.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.528334.9%29 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked RE.Arise68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2433452.7%176 W · 158 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise51c31.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.316958%98 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9077…9c3fbacked RE.Arise71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed RE.Arise77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.758956.2%50 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe598…661dbacked RE.Arise73c24.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked RE.Arise68c24.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9131950.8%162 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb284…b1fbbacked RE.Arise79c19.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.113562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b4…4ab8backed RE.Arise65c18.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed RE.Arise72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.982070%14 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed RE.Arise64c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.768052.5%42 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed RE.Arise72c15.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3339758.7%233 W · 164 L+24.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed RE.Arise73c14.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9111363.7%72 W · 41 L+10.7wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.