Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88bb9df9f16422f1331bad726e4a0b780c361bc3de0c059c2bbe8f1b93f7712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 2c | 1,550$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 5c | 540.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 76c | 506.67$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 5c | 496.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 355.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 7c | 270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 6c | 259.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 72c | 151.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 19c | 116.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 82.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 29c | 71.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 68.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3604…8b0dbacked Yes | 74c | 46.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03?this page
- Will Aury Nagy be the Republican nominee for NV-03?No won
- Will Tera Anderson be the Republican nominee for NV-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.