Champions League · resolved market
Will PSG vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw after regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8c23c222a09bfab9968553ff6508d3794db4d21f08d280308219b5177826890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 59c | 2,108$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.86 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 33c | 1,538$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 71c | 1,496$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.38 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,396$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,135$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.92 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 40c | 1,117$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.93 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 26c | 1,079$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…cb36backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 13c | 577.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…a8f9backed No | 74c | 570$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 73c | 525.71$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…9e63backed No | 74c | 430$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 74c | 420.24$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 358$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 72c | 241.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 26c | 234.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…35e6backed No | 74c | 216.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…81c2backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 28c | 189.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…a9eebacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…f91bbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 34c | 167.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 135.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 41c | 122.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 105.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Yes | 28c | 98.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 58c | 85.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 68c | 50.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 36.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 449 | 33.6%151 W · 298 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PSG vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw after regulation time?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat PSG in regulation time?No won
- Will PSG beat Bayern Munich in regulation time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.