Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat PSG in regulation time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47dcfded5d86dfb50379381d604df203548660ef4d99b3e5230b160aa1b8fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed No | 71c | 14,162$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,162.25 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 79c | 6,690$5,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 30c | 4,932$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 8c | 4,923$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.84 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 34c | 4,102$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.8 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 65c | 3,740$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.44 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed No | 69c | 2,615$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.06 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 66c | 2,400$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed Yes | 35c | 1,934$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 59c | 1,690$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.9 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 45c | 1,610$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.38 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 31c | 1,181$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.07 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…9426backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348d…b38fbacked Yes | 30c | 995$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 30c | 783.35$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.62 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 35c | 692.63$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 26c | 450$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Yes | 32c | 335.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 40c | 291$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 67c | 281.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked Yes | 33c | 228$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 78c | 183.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 68c | 144$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 67c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…a9eebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 72c | 79.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…c308backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538b…cc04backed Yes | 41c | 53.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Yes | 35c | 50.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…c281backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…4e97backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed No | 57c | 39.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 36.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 433 | 33.5%145 W · 288 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bd03backed No | 68c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat PSG in regulation time?this page
- Will PSG beat Bayern Munich in regulation time?Yes won
- Will PSG vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw after regulation time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.