NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc904dd66251470f4c845e5fa9d8810b8df5afa526cd1a92d514149f8d6811899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Over | 56c | 6,100$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,730$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 2,359$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.96 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 51c | 156.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 144.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Under | 47c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Over | 53c | 41.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c2…2f0bbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Over | 53c | 36.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Over | 53c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…a2aabacked Over | 53c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…7347backed Over | 53c | 30.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Over | 53c | 29.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Over | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Over | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…627bbacked Over | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Over | 53c | 28.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Over | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…38febacked Over | 53c | 27.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Warriors vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.