NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce2b410961a73b09a0c88ff9efa5c04c1e2c0389668ac3548dfa84f2532cb5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Warriors, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 55c | 10,298$5,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,663.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Raptors | 45c | 10,250$4,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,637.49 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 42c | 3,805$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 53c | 3,434$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.9 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Raptors | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.98 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Raptors | 45c | 1,953$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.99 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 54c | 1,110$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.38 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Raptors | 45c | 1,091$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.19 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors | 45c | 980.09$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.25 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Warriors | 55c | 911.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Warriors | 49c | 757.59$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.74 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 43c | 704.55$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.81 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Raptors | 51c | 671.75$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.59 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Raptors | 47c | 632.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.94 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Warriors | 57c | 600$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.85 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…e2c5backed Warriors | 55c | 547.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Raptors | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Raptors | 27c | 401.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors | 51c | 370.27$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.84 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Warriors | 50c | 294$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 49c | 247.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 55c | 225.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Warriors | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raptors | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Warriors | 50c | 182$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Raptors | 45c | 156.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Raptors | 45c | 133.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 47c | 126$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Warriors | 54c | 125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Warriors | 53c | 116.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Warriors | 56c | 103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Warriors | 79c | 102.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Warriors | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Warriors | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Raptors | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Warriors | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Warriors | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Warriors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…cbf1backed Raptors | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Warriors | 55c | 81.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors | 45c | 74.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 55c | 72.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Raptors | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Warriors | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors | 63c | 53.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 49c | 50.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Warriors | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Raptors | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Raptors | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…6ccdbacked Warriors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…f3a9backed Warriors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Raptors | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Raptors | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Raptors | 31c | 34.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Warriors | 61c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked Raptors | 43c | 28.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Warriors | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Raptors | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Raptors | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Warriors vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.