NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdbb519b7a8cb1a47d1345c07b80b93c4406ff02fb1c24e7daa8fa4fd35569cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Over | 49c | 17,047$8,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,694 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…516fbacked Under | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 48c | 9,788$4,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,697.18 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…cfb0backed Under | 51c | 7,843$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 4,815$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 52c | 1,595$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.6 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 46c | 1,051$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.66 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 887.93$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.84 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 245.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 81.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 51c | 62.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 47c | 35.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Warriors vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.