NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0df2b6e69d5a48ca64a91c9caca1c8361c83d3a974e8e6511736a7a3e0a2c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Over | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,999.99 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 45c | 8,845$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980.27 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 6,179$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over | 54c | 5,553$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.48 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3800…1715backed Under | 46c | 4,989$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 45c | 2,805$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.23 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 2,454$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.88 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 1,004$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 723.85$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.69 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 47c | 592.62$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.53 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 556.6$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.6 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 522.78$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.76 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 50c | 158.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 51c | 143.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 118.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Under | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…f03cbacked Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Over | 59c | 84.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 53c | 76.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 49c | 74.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb346…3538backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c0…e672backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Warriors vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.