MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca364bd7e2d628d98339273cfdca8bcba7aedc7a0eba4298a2115ec17f32539c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 1,200$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 22c | 960.29$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 797$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 729$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.58 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 651.44$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.08 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 554.75$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 513.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 369.93$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 360.92$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 267.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 266.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 72c | 219.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 159.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 113.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Washington Nationals | 16c | 77.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 77.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 53.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 51.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 36.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 36.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 36.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 35.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 33.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 32.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.