MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34b79a96de6a1fa84ebdd9965837b3d12726ce5ba837b73ec95c78de109522ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 2,454$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 1,499$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.41 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 68c | 1,458$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 694.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 332.83$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 324$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 230.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 223.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 166.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Washington Nationals | 14c | 151.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 119.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 14c | 98.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 97.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 95.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Washington Nationals | 21c | 68.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 66.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 36.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 35.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 18.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked San Diego Padres | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 16.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.