TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b4e…0232backed Under49c167,809$82,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,226.473138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb91a…3987backed Over51c108,942$55,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,394.3613561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Over51c90,780$46,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,482.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+60.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under49c15,825$7,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,754.2592054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under49c9,584$4,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,675.5111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under49c5,558$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.143,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4501,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under49c2,160$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.991,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Under50c2,005$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.4524150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under66c1,622$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.188,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c1,449$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.16,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c1,411$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Over54c1,200$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.3251756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over63c1,106$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.618,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over23c1,035$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.391252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4902,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c900.75$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.424,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under50c601.4$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.752,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.022,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over51c544.06$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.3289053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2459,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under47c455.93$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Under49c401$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.498856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under49c361.93$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.465549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over45c218.89$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.126,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under45c207.18$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over56c205$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8526860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c5…5a2fbacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Under50c203.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5220848.6%101 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3115159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Under50c169.78$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8912049.2%59 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over77c164$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0232166.4%213 W · 108 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over51c160$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.41,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over44c146.07$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.81,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over44c146.07$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.81,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under53c128$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.491,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e1…5934backed Under70c104.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.086248.4%30 W · 32 L-15.4wins-0.25per pick73cpaid-33.7%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Under70c104.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.087569.3%52 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x976f…8a71backed Under50c103.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-48.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4940446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5078454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under51c99.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.557747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Over52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1547849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6210…4fb1backed Over52c96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0814759.9%88 W · 59 L+14.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under34c95.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3690446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over51c81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.691,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x606f…71cebacked Under49c74.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.682352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under49c72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2878155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed Over51c58.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9216349.1%80 W · 83 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over49c56.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6272655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe851…9471backed Under50c55.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Under49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525149.8%125 W · 126 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe604…dc02backed Under49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.26per pick52cpaid-48.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked Under58c45.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.464235.7%15 W · 27 L-7.8wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-37.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1a51…51eebacked Under65c41.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.76933.3%3 W · 6 L-3.4wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-50.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb941…1619backed Under49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+513.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Under49c40.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9914057.9%81 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under50c38.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.362,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Under50c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1925850.4%130 W · 128 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under37c35.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.266,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Under59c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6543043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Over52c31.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2215857.6%91 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Under50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521751.6%112 W · 105 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over52c29.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.141,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over43c29.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.662,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under54c24.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.599744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under51c24.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under50c22.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under50c21.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.772,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over50c20.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.219248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Over51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.934754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over52c19.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5659749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.