MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1bf5973fbeb428c8b43fc9a8caa5632ca61ccda015bf0105afe9511f684a54e

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Washington Nationalsof San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals
Resolved: May 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,900 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed San Diego Padres	42c	17,952$7,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,500	238	46.6%111 W · 127 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals	58c	12,716$7,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,340.58	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked San Diego Padres	42c	12,045$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	243	44.4%108 W · 135 L	-11.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked San Diego Padres	49c	3,448$1,685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,685.44	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals	51c	3,134$1,597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,537.55	11,356	52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L	+209.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals	59c	2,500$1,475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,025	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f54…f1c9backed San Diego Padres	50c	2,276$1,137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,137.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Washington Nationals	59c	2,000$1,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Washington Nationals	59c	2,000$1,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820	241	50.6%122 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals	58c	2,000$1,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$839.99	5,400	50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L	+17.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals	51c	1,626$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$797.7	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Washington Nationals	37c	1,390$514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875.87	912	52.4%478 W · 434 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals	58c	1,183$686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.8	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Washington Nationals	59c	1,143$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468.77	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked San Diego Padres	53c	1,020$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.6	603	50.1%302 W · 301 L	-10.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals	59c	1,000$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4498…473dbacked Washington Nationals	58c	1,000$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Washington Nationals	37c	953.57$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.75	188	60.1%113 W · 75 L	+14.6wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+237.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Nationals	58c	933.55$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.09	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres	63c	872.8$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.58	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals	58c	869.45$504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365.17	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals	57c	791.27$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.89	2,012	51.2%1,031 W · 981 L	+43.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres	39c	728.05$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.62	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Washington Nationals	59c	696.67$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.02	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals	47c	690$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365.65	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals	63c	639.53$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.56	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals	57c	632.61$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.42	4,477	48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L	-47.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Washington Nationals	59c	490.01$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.9	1,056	48.3%510 W · 546 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres	35c	461.53$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.54	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals	59c	365$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.65	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Washington Nationals	54c	343.52$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.02	1,215	47.6%578 W · 637 L	-19.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Washington Nationals	54c	343.52$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.02	1,106	48.7%539 W · 567 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres	59c	275.3$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.75	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef5…3881backed Washington Nationals	58c	240.45$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.99	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.2wins	+0.31per pick	55cpaid	+52%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked San Diego Padres	42c	240$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	193	35.8%69 W · 124 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals	59c	218.22$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.96	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals	56c	181$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.28	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Washington Nationals	60c	178$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.2	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres	45c	175$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.75	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked Washington Nationals	47c	170.21$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.21	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals	59c	167.64$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.73	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals	50c	160.4$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.82	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed San Diego Padres	44c	143.14$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.65	430	43%185 W · 245 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres	25c	131$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8e4…53bbbacked San Diego Padres	42c	119.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+5.8wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals	58c	115.99$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.72	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Washington Nationals	58c	100.1$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.04	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed San Diego Padres	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	173	54.9%95 W · 78 L	-14.0wins	-0.08per pick	63cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2d1…f8c0backed San Diego Padres	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	60	50%30 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals	55c	99.99$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals	57c	78.16$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.73	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Washington Nationals	57c	71.61$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.68	1,038	51.7%537 W · 501 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres	44c	67.34$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.41	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals	60c	60$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Washington Nationals	59c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	556	43.9%244 W · 312 L	-38.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x320b…6057backed San Diego Padres	41c	49.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+3.9wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed San Diego Padres	42c	46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	468	54.5%255 W · 213 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres	42c	46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	721	54.2%391 W · 330 L	+20.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+144.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8b…9cd7backed San Diego Padres	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Washington Nationals	59c	42.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	131	55.7%73 W · 58 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Washington Nationals	60c	41.49$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.6	401	48.1%193 W · 208 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Washington Nationals	60c	40.3$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.12	295	53.2%157 W · 138 L	+7.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed San Diego Padres	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	517	56.5%292 W · 225 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres	41c	35.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals	50c	32.65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.34	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed San Diego Padres	42c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	348	43.4%151 W · 197 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked San Diego Padres	48c	24.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-7.8wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcadd…c7e6backed San Diego Padres	58c	20.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Washington Nationals	67c	19.32$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.34	660	56.2%371 W · 289 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals	58c	18.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84e4…1909backed Washington Nationals	59c	17.76$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Washington Nationals	62c	17.2$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.45	726	55.4%402 W · 324 L	+40.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event