Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca50539af8b12d37e7d1395ed25e69ccf4b72a1e603d2ab9cb90399c8fc3a271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 4,486$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,286.8 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa059…dbcfbacked No | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 916.01$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.72 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 56c | 497.24$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.65 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 492.86$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.49 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 61c | 327.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 277$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 273.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 252$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 15c | 247.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 41c | 245.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 215.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 49c | 213.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 161.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 126.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 49c | 112$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 101$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 34c | 99.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 97.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 96.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 45c | 85.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 84.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 83.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 80.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 73.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…6f04backed Yes | 79c | 71.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…6f16backed Yes | 76c | 66.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 51c | 63.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 60.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 47c | 55.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 35c | 50.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 48.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 52c | 47.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 75c | 46.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 42.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 36c | 36.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -32.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 34.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…9855backed No | 49c | 33.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 53c | 32.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 47c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 56c | 30.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 48c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 46c | 25.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 24.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 586 | 58%340 W · 246 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.