TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals30c1,007$303 inLost-$303.272,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers70c905.27$633 inWon+$272.0511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals24c698.17$165 inLost-$165.2512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals19c628.67$119 inLost-$119.4510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kansas City Royals34c499.27$170 inLost-$169.751,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…e934backed Texas Rangers66c499.27$330 inWon+$169.756768.7%46 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers63c493.48$311 inWon+$182.598,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61cd…541ebacked Texas Rangers77c393.82$303 inWon+$90.8214864.2%95 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Kansas City Royals36c278$100 inLost-$100.0820848.6%101 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Texas Rangers64c218.14$140 inWon+$78.532,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals35c195.31$68 inLost-$68.366,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Kansas City Royals30c82$25 inLost-$24.657046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Texas Rangers64c58$37 inWon+$20.881,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals36c58$21 inLost-$20.883,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Kansas City Royals37c56.5$21 inLost-$20.9111555.7%64 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers65c51$33 inWon+$17.8572154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers63c47.5$30 inWon+$17.582,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Kansas City Royals37c41.97$16 inLost-$15.5329354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Texas Rangers64c38.94$25 inWon+$14.022,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Texas Rangers65c38.46$25 inWon+$13.4613155.7%73 W · 58 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers72c33.92$24 inWon+$9.64,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Kansas City Royals37c31.49$12 inLost-$11.6536250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5e…f0c5backed Texas Rangers79c18$14 inWon+$3.789473.4%69 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.