MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe235947d34b273d3245f3baee3cc282f0691b91d01277c90fe64bb79b10121b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 61c | 2,102$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.02 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 44c | 889$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.89 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 33c | 872.97$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.89 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 636.7$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.09 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…40b1backed Over | 67c | 576.27$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 68c | 572.88$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.57 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 434.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.79 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 62c | 344.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.37 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 282.69$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.36 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 242.35$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 38c | 200.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.35 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 193.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 40c | 183.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 56c | 159.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ab…472bbacked Under | 40c | 149.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Under | 36c | 110.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Under | 34c | 103.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…f874backed Over | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 64c | 80.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 35c | 79.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 73.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 36c | 61.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 36c | 60.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 36c | 53.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 63c | 50.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Under | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 35.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 73c | 32.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 47c | 28.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…a6d5backed Over | 63c | 17.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.