TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,270 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers16c3,270$536 inLost-$535.710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Kansas City Royals61c2,372$1,447 inWon+$925.2424551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Texas Rangers50c438.31$221 inLost-$221.161,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals63c378.89$240 inWon+$138.7612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals60c365.73$220 inWon+$145.998,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers29c354.11$103 inLost-$103.049,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…3691backed Texas Rangers17c147.06$25 inLost-$254944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers20c101.86$20 inLost-$20.225,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals77c93.08$72 inWon+$21.33,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers44c88.61$39 inLost-$39.196,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…944bbacked Kansas City Royals67c82.36$55 inWon+$27.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals70c78.5$55 inWon+$23.588,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals68c70.35$48 inWon+$22.622,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Texas Rangers21c59.39$13 inLost-$12.72,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals55c51.83$29 inWon+$23.113,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe10…4800backed Kansas City Royals58c43.1$25 inWon+$18.11040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Texas Rangers40c40$16 inLost-$1677836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Kansas City Royals64c30$19 inWon+$10.835248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Kansas City Royals72c27.86$20 inWon+$7.928456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Kansas City Royals65c23$15 inWon+$8.0672655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1201…a74dbacked Kansas City Royals56c19.64$11 inWon+$8.641668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Kansas City Royals65c18.4$12 inWon+$6.4183053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.