MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539325be558f752c933ef4ec24a6684f9054fb554bd58f5fb7607288b69f06bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 3,088$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 2,587$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.58 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 34c | 2,563$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Texas Rangers | 76c | 1,903$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 958.21$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.9 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 764.65$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 731$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.98 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 682.72$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 55c | 426.47$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 322.73$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…c034backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 304.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 245$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 121.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 115.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 86.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Kansas City Royals | 21c | 86.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 82.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers | 42c | 82.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 64.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 62.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 47.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 68c | 46.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 41.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Texas Rangers | 75c | 40.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10d…5d2bbacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Texas Rangers | 51c | 32.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…bdbebacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.