Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcacd1b76f2b34e44c9360501da8dfee0f2c0c6eeb922b85cb872e9a2b3778805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 57c | 1,714$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.69 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 35c | 529.89$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 43c | 487.84$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.05 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 22c | 476.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 42c | 327.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 66c | 302$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 50c | 246.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 43c | 232.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked Yes | 20c | 229.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 79c | 219.9$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 210.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 206.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 205.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 71c | 186.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 184$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 129$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 42c | 126.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 48c | 125.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 41c | 121.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 41c | 120.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 118.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 112.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 107.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 15c | 105.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 14c | 105.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 43c | 92.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 85.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 84.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 43c | 84.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 82.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 75.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 57c | 73.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 47c | 64.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 62.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 61.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 55.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 39c | 50.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 42c | 43.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 43c | 41.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 41.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 40.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 35c | 39.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 50c | 38.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 59c | 37.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…e4f8backed Yes | 43c | 35.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes | 43c | 33.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…2a2bbacked Yes | 75c | 32.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 45c | 31.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…c962backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 43c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 28.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 46c | 27.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 26.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…937cbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 58c | 25.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 24.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 22.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 74c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked No | 58c | 18.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 17.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.