TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,108 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked No57c1,714$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.691,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No35c529.89$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes43c487.84$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No22c476.07$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.465,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes42c327.29$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d44…7023backed Yes66c302$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.075680.4%45 W · 11 L+17.3wins+0.31per pick50cpaid+102.1%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes50c246.92$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8530332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Yes43c232.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3216833.9%57 W · 111 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f3…787cbacked Yes20c229.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.69520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes79c219.9$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.367968.4%54 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c210.09$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No9c206.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c205.57$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.833,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes71c186.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.640265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes43c184$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.883,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c179$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.185,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No27c129$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes42c126.39$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5713540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes48c125.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c125$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.754,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No41c121.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No41c120.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c118.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c112.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.349,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c107.92$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.374,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No15c105.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.741,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No14c105.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.752,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b17…f3febacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No43c92.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7628847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No37c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.135344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes59c87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.752,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c85.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.353,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No26c84.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No43c84.16$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes45c82.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.976,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No62c75.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.987629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes57c73.15$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1317956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aa8…5e72backed No47c64.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.165137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes58c64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.812,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No56c62.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.684,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No48c61.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No34c59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0633350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes43c56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.922,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c55.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No39c50.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.515246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.55248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.59145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.56243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1718254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2915950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes42c43.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5533232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd988…6ce5backed Yes43c41.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8211840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No56c41.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No56c40.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.432,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No35c39.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1325954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes50c38.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2316453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes59c37.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.612,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…e4f8backed Yes43c35.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No57c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes43c33.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.196451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…2a2bbacked Yes75c32.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2625058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No45c31.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1428866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1094066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No45c31.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1444567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5e…c962backed Yes74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes43c29.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.581,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No41c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.892,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes55c28.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.812,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No57c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.969038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes46c27.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.982,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes71c27.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.115358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No53c26.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.873,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No52c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.471,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce24…937cbacked No58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+81.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No58c25.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c24.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.987,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes43c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.624,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No56c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.442,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No56c22.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098d…6cc2backed Yes74c20.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.413881.6%31 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.413845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked No58c18.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes74c17.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.412,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes75c16.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.152,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.