Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c480ccff4891d12d40a4c29a95aa563eaf47fd09efe8f477b894750a26b9c6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 1c | 6,566$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 0c | 3,383$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,853$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 67c | 2,208$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.47 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,209$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 34c | 826.64$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.46 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 559.35$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 384.35$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 334$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 36c | 325$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 233.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 203$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 26c | 194.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 192.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 173.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 33c | 135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 20c | 121.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 18c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 109.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 99.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08d2…dd0fbacked Yes | 12c | 99.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 27c | 88.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 83.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 76.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 65c | 71.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…8d02backed No | 72c | 69.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 68c | 63.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 63.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 70c | 58.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 50.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 49.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 30c | 49.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 79c | 48.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…3342backed No | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 40.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 40.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…ac69backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 30.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 68c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed Yes | 35c | 29.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 29.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 74c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 71c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 77c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.