Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcae22c88715712ee2457b29407839b9ecccd61b0f389e6fe284353bf3b7f3116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 931.59$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.97 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 13c | 334.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 291.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 40c | 270$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 26c | 212.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 68c | 192.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 163$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 31c | 141$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 132.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 131.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 71c | 120.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked Yes | 48c | 74.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 52.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 42.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 49c | 41.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 40.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 64c | 40.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 38.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 37.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 34.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 65c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 55c | 23.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77cd…9148backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 62c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 1?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.