Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bbf77416706cc33a6da1d982a176c06815fc0d00445e3cb98035c2f1460575e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 30c | 620.59$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 512.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 35c | 511.39$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.66 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 34c | 485.93$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 476.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 70c | 294.55$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 34c | 285$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.91 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 274.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 270.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.58 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 268.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 57c | 225.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 72c | 193.85$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 186.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.1 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 9c | 168.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 35c | 111.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 88.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 80c | 80.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 51c | 76.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 43c | 63.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 50.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 78c | 49.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 45c | 41.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12aa…37edbacked Yes | 61c | 41.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 50c | 26.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 25.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 72c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.