MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf08da1915be39e5f566b8d92a2fe51a5a91ee07591d1ae92e53e25dd70bfc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 5,517$3,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.8 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 5,099$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.82 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Under | 59c | 2,542$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.37 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 60c | 1,666$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.4 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 1,333$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 58c | 1,105$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.31 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 1,084$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 971.33$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 45c | 772.62$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.68 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 709.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.78 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 693.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Under | 59c | 622.83$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 45c | 525.47$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.46 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…9c28backed Over | 42c | 524.29$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.2 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Over | 42c | 482.02$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.02 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 459.91$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…3f29backed Under | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 405.57$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 385.05$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.19 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 59c | 330$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dab…9f7bbacked Under | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 244.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 42c | 239.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 27c | 219.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 27c | 218.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 43c | 174$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 41c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 43c | 137$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Under | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 42c | 103.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 84.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586b…52d9backed Under | 59c | 67.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked Over | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 52.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 36c | 48.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…627dbacked Under | 59c | 44.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ebe3backed Over | 41c | 39.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…7fd8backed Over | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 43c | 33.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 31.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Under | 55c | 29.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Under | 56c | 26.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.