MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed792f7b2150133b24c16f8fee5aefaef0d180d67788424c4b8687809e9645bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 208,333$108,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,999.82 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 153,856$73,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,941.44 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 48c | 24,145$11,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,589.72 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 11,543$5,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,540.62 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 8,778$4,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 48c | 6,263$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,278.47 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 42c | 4,752$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 3,892$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 2,381$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Over | 56c | 2,002$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.59 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 1,783$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 1,730$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.52 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 633$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.17 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 585$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…c72dbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 259.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Under | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 40c | 233.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 58c | 213.11$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 53c | 208.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 207.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 48c | 188.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 181.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 56c | 180.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 134.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 113.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 25c | 73.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 72.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 43c | 59.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 35c | 53.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…4425backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed5…b480backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…7b20backed Over | 52c | 37.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Under | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 65c | 29.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 29.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Under | 48c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Under | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 66c | 17.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.