Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb37ba0e96b3185ce889460b2a4f9d70f6ab9ca258297e4493974e46bec6b89a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 710$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 538.13$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 35c | 430$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 370.49$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 294.26$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 276.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 157.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 49c | 155.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 145.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 135.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 36c | 127$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 125.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 116.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 34c | 110.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 107.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 103.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 101.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 40c | 95.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 94.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 92.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 49c | 85.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 82.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 75.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 57c | 63.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 66c | 57.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 46.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 40.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 63c | 38.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 37.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 37.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 35.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 32.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 67c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 50c | 24.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 74c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 70c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 63c | 19.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.