CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb48a6996fa61476f257588f9e5b8ab304490d678419ef5cde4c53a31b99fece

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Inner Circle Esportsof 3DMAX, Inner Circle Esports
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,247 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7c38…1218backed Inner Circle Esports	59c	6,417$3,789 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,628.1	74	40.5%30 W · 44 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked 3DMAX	47c	6,385$2,985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,985	323	48.9%158 W · 165 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 3DMAX	53c	3,886$2,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,052.32	1,611	45.4%731 W · 880 L	+30.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Inner Circle Esports	49c	3,750$1,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,899.99	598	39.6%237 W · 361 L	-15.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e53…eaebbacked Inner Circle Esports	50c	3,065$1,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,518.28	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed 3DMAX	65c	3,000$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,950	469	49.7%233 W · 236 L	-14.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Inner Circle Esports	50c	2,891$1,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,432.25	3,096	48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L	+135.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 3DMAX	36c	2,036$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$739.6	1,040	44%458 W · 582 L	-22.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Inner Circle Esports	58c	1,890$1,097 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$792.56	3,257	50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L	+98.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 3DMAX	37c	1,810$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.81	2,326	55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L	+44.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Inner Circle Esports	69c	1,777$1,226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$551	836	52.5%439 W · 397 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed 3DMAX	10c	1,338$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.04	1,969	46.7%919 W · 1,050 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked 3DMAX	28c	1,291$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363	183	36.6%67 W · 116 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf837…8b61backed 3DMAX	1c	1,199$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Inner Circle Esports	31c	1,163$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$803.01	550	43.1%237 W · 313 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 3DMAX	26c	1,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed 3DMAX	42c	998.69$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.38	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked 3DMAX	24c	919$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.81	229	27.5%63 W · 166 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed 3DMAX	26c	770.77$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	613	38.2%234 W · 379 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9777…6b53backed 3DMAX	40c	764.88$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.9	197	32.5%64 W · 133 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed 3DMAX	3c	600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	52	25%13 W · 39 L	+7.3wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+211.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Inner Circle Esports	62c	525$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.67	388	68.3%265 W · 123 L	+25.7wins	+0.07per pick	62cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked 3DMAX	65c	460$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	420	50%210 W · 210 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Inner Circle Esports	60c	451$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.4	157	43.3%68 W · 89 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Inner Circle Esports	35c	410$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	178	47.2%84 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 3DMAX	32c	402.41$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.52	1,714	46.7%801 W · 913 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa6…f3b0backed 3DMAX	35c	368.3$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.63	136	75%102 W · 34 L	+22.9wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0x998f…75d1backed 3DMAX	43c	342.65$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.95	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Inner Circle Esports	55c	340$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.3	113	37.2%42 W · 71 L	-9.8wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked 3DMAX	48c	338.23$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-6.2wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed 3DMAX	46c	319$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.32	623	50.9%317 W · 306 L	+18.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Inner Circle Esports	55c	309.55$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.55	656	50.3%330 W · 326 L	-15.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed 3DMAX	26c	299.99$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.05	68	27.9%19 W · 49 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-33%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed Inner Circle Esports	27c	298.79$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.79	635	41.1%261 W · 374 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Inner Circle Esports	68c	295$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.7	40	72.5%29 W · 11 L	+8.3wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed 3DMAX	42c	293.41$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.23	921	52.6%484 W · 437 L	+16.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x553f…99b9backed 3DMAX	38c	290.5$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.39	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.4wins	-0.15per pick	41cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Inner Circle Esports	35c	268.85$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.75	271	33.2%90 W · 181 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed 3DMAX	40c	263$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.2	284	53.5%152 W · 132 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c5…1bdabacked 3DMAX	23c	259.7$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.47	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc3…ee32backed 3DMAX	60c	236.92$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.18	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	60cpaid	+35%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked 3DMAX	65c	226.15$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	117	47%55 W · 62 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed Inner Circle Esports	61c	223.18$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.53	92	64.1%59 W · 33 L	+10.0wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa006…0653backed 3DMAX	19c	213.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed 3DMAX	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	524	49%257 W · 267 L	-27.7wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Inner Circle Esports	59c	210.61$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.1	698	63%440 W · 258 L	+65.3wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed 3DMAX	66c	204.6$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.04	398	51.3%204 W · 194 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed 3DMAX	17c	203.61$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	-7.6wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked 3DMAX	40c	200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1,181	22.5%266 W · 915 L	+3.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed 3DMAX	62c	200$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	970	40.7%395 W · 575 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3801…83ddbacked 3DMAX	45c	184.98$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.86	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd13e…ca33backed Inner Circle Esports	33c	182.47$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123	98	26.5%26 W · 72 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…cea7backed 3DMAX	38c	140.34$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.33	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Inner Circle Esports	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	656	62.3%409 W · 247 L	+27.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbd…16d6backed Inner Circle Esports	76c	122.78$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.47	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.7wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked 3DMAX	45c	102.42$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.09	268	36.6%98 W · 170 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed 3DMAX	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	146	45.2%66 W · 80 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9f6…f506backed Inner Circle Esports	35c	100$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Inner Circle Esports	24c	100$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76	1,248	41.3%516 W · 732 L	+5.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…9719backed Inner Circle Esports	60c	91.73$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.73	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed 3DMAX	32c	91.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	439	33.7%148 W · 291 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Inner Circle Esports	50c	90.26$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.26	988	56.1%554 W · 434 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98c2…9450backed Inner Circle Esports	77c	89.73$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.64	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	42cpaid	+39.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03db…e62fbacked 3DMAX	65c	76.18$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.52	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked 3DMAX	79c	60$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	980	52.4%514 W · 466 L	+26.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Inner Circle Esports	61c	57.38$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.38	222	54.5%121 W · 101 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Inner Circle Esports	58c	53.03$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.14	198	43.9%87 W · 111 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed 3DMAX	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	225	56%126 W · 99 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Inner Circle Esports	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	145	33.1%48 W · 97 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+55.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac18…6f88backed Inner Circle Esports	40c	47.35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.41	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd4…2fd4backed Inner Circle Esports	79c	46.52$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.96	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Inner Circle Esports	70c	45$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	807	41.3%333 W · 474 L	-10.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558c…ca77backed Inner Circle Esports	71c	41.67$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.17	182	65.9%120 W · 62 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Inner Circle Esports	61c	41.15$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.15	317	57.7%183 W · 134 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed 3DMAX	44c	39.81$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.43	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Inner Circle Esports	59c	39.19$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.08	291	28.5%83 W · 208 L	-30.2wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xabc8…fd71backed Inner Circle Esports	27c	37.92$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.58	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…e51dbacked 3DMAX	42c	34.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7719…80b6backed Inner Circle Esports	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	30	73.3%22 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	73cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f89…b87ebacked 3DMAX	31c	32.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…9ccdbacked 3DMAX	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed 3DMAX	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	144	54.2%78 W · 66 L	+9.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f91…8065backed 3DMAX	79c	30$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.5wins	+0.18per pick	52cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Inner Circle Esports	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	58	62.1%36 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe615…506fbacked Inner Circle Esports	67c	21.81$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.18	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed 3DMAX	65c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	420	57.6%242 W · 178 L	+19.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Inner Circle Esports	60c	19.34$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.76	339	49%166 W · 173 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3)Inner Circle Esports won
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner3DMAX won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5)Inner Circle Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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