UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba2dabb7d2260772978136072bc0a13a32c9bcb6c03c25cf8df6b79b71bd430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 43c | 40,959$17,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,378.5 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 56c | 35,711$20,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,141.67 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Under | 44c | 20,932$9,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,721.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 57c | 11,242$6,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,407.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 57c | 11,242$6,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,407.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed Over | 56c | 6,526$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 70c | 2,866$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.38 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 33c | 1,514$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.67 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 49c | 1,030$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.65 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 45c | 994.8$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 526$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 56c | 421.11$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.82 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Under | 44c | 397.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…7fa7backed Under | 46c | 392.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Over | 56c | 286.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Under | 44c | 282$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 57c | 280.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 44c | 249.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.66 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Under | 21c | 240$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 39c | 238.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.85 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 44c | 237.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…1937backed Under | 50c | 212.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +254.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 47c | 204.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Over | 52c | 190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under | 21c | 176.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 44c | 167.54$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 56c | 163$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 56c | 148.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 56c | 126.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Under | 41c | 123.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Under | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Under | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +140%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…93ccbacked Over | 54c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b7…ad02backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…2103backed Over | 57c | 81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Under | 45c | 66.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cb…4a87backed Under | 44c | 64.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 56c | 60.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…6939backed Under | 44c | 46.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Under | 44c | 45.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +10.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Under | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 56c | 42.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Under | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Under | 44c | 38.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 57c | 34.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Under | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…2ba5backed Over | 57c | 33.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 44c | 33.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f9…b54ebacked Under | 46c | 32.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…916fbacked Under | 44c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 54c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0812…5f92backed Over | 56c | 27.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…af56backed Under | 45c | 26.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…40aabacked Under | 44c | 25.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Over | 56c | 18.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Over | 57c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)King Green won
- Will Jeremy Stephens win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will King Green win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.