UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6737bf82e00b0da69e9bd7375acc85243052bc9af3dcc06f3f9f196e2c9d3b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe134…6cf1backed No | 62c | 802.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 37c | 746.97$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.83 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 47c | 689.42$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.03 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked No | 53c | 610$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.7 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Yes | 50c | 426$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.9 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…bbedbacked Yes | 18c | 279.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 55c | 133.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…39c7backed No | 59c | 97.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…c648backed No | 47c | 85.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 45c | 79.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Yes | 41c | 70.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 49c | 55.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked No | 60c | 50.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed No | 52c | 47.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked No | 53c | 47.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 47c | 45.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…42b0backed Yes | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed No | 51c | 39.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…e682backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed No | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…8267backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…f3ebbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed No | 67c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 29.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 48c | 29.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…e0f0backed No | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Yes | 53c | 25.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 52c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…93ccbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)King Green won
- Will Jeremy Stephens win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will King Green win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.