NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd861db0f0f2ed1bcfd21d24215700f3cf733d029a30f6d5e11de1d8509cb6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Clippers | 54c | 1,996$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.72 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 1,545$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 50c | 505$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Clippers | 63c | 352.38$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 48c | 291.3$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Cavaliers | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Clippers | 62c | 185.48$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Clippers | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cf…cb94backed Clippers | 24c | 92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Cavaliers | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Clippers | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 46c | 62.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Clippers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…451dbacked Clippers | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…f00ebacked Clippers | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Cavaliers | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb6…3578backed Clippers | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Clippers | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Clippers | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Clippers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Clippers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.