NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23210a7ebf51e69b97be6f021c9ec756bde8494e57cc44cce7d8474e4c0e21e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Clippers | 50c | 10,884$5,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,441.96 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Cavaliers | 50c | 8,385$4,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,192.5 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 4,279$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.17 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Clippers | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Clippers | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…1424backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Clippers | 45c | 1,794$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.34 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 50c | 1,176$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clippers | 48c | 1,083$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.84 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 53c | 774$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Cavaliers | 42c | 456$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.48 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Clippers | 52c | 446$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Cavaliers | 50c | 335$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Cavaliers | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Cavaliers | 45c | 230$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Clippers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Cavaliers | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cavaliers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…29a9backed Cavaliers | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…dfb3backed Cavaliers | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…3e32backed Cavaliers | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa82…a6c3backed Cavaliers | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3139…e6e6backed Cavaliers | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Cavaliers | 51c | 137.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers | 45c | 119.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Clippers | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Clippers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Clippers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Clippers | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…0b48backed Clippers | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Cavaliers | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 40c | 62.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Clippers | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Cavaliers | 47c | 54.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 48c | 53.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Clippers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…7bb9backed Clippers | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Clippers | 45c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Clippers | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cavaliers | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 163 | 21.5%35 W · 128 L | -20.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Clippers | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Clippers vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.