Champions League · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbe57d0414d8c0c12006a757e6066f38253b0e74a47526407301da2ef01e3243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Under | 12c | 2,887$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 25c | 1,752$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.92 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…e300backed Over | 70c | 1,350$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 66c | 800.83$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.28 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 68c | 704.68$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 79c | 615.94$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 12c | 599.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 77c | 316.07$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…398ebacked Under | 39c | 238.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 12c | 234.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Under | 38c | 222.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 196.64$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 79c | 171$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…5881backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 63c | 150.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 202 | 56.9%115 W · 87 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…1ac0backed Over | 66c | 104.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 89.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 70c | 41.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed Over | 57c | 37.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Over | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 62c | 22.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 21.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 389 | 53.7%209 W · 180 L | +21.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Under won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.