Champions League · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8327cdcaf8ffce8c6702fd6c89800c5184a8336478f5e4b3373c42363befb2ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 23c | 29,291$6,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,735.7 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 69c | 17,031$11,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,279.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 77c | 8,000$6,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 7,033$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.49 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 71c | 4,283$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.09 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 21c | 3,751$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 71c | 2,768$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.6 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 31c | 1,275$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.31 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 69c | 1,101$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.36 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 67c | 1,007$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.31 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 630.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 31c | 612.91$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.95 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 74c | 599.23$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.79 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 27c | 533$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.05 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 69c | 420$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 74c | 399.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 72c | 343$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 69c | 330$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 69c | 330$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 69c | 320$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 70c | 302.23$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 284.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 70c | 179.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 29c | 89.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 20c | 77.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 69c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 73c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 34c | 72.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…ead7backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…031abacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 30c | 45.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 28c | 39.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 28c | 36.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 73c | 29.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…b888backed Under | 69c | 25.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 72c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.