Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc2bd199a3f285b56d168b06c47f6aed900842e4d65079759a682b606cde0f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 72c | 660.5$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 612.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 347.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 15c | 257.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 239.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 163.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 72c | 157.15$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…6ca6backed Yes | 15c | 152.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 139.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 131.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 130.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 118.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 109.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 95.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 23c | 94.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 35c | 92.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 90.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 25c | 88.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 77.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 76.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 76.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 69c | 69.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 47c | 66.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 63.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 58.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 54.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e3…6651backed Yes | 28c | 53.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 71c | 50.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 46.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 65c | 43.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 37.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 30c | 33.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 27.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…26f6backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 71c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 22.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 71c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…ba4cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 72c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.