Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86495e57305ce56d78b7679842d52cfcfd7561518818bdeb2c8511a660e9a7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 3c | 488.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 249.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 236.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 176.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 163.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 43c | 152.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 149.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 55c | 138.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 125.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 15c | 122.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 115.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 109.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 40c | 95.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 93.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 81.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 79.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 71.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 31c | 65.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 32c | 62.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 35c | 60.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 56c | 58.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 23c | 54.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 51.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 50.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 65c | 47.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 41.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 41.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 79c | 41.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…8597backed Yes | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 39.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed Yes | 41c | 35.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 68c | 34.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 42c | 31.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 30.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 30.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 64c | 23.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 63c | 23.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…ba4cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 64c | 18.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…d2d6backed No | 80c | 14.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.