Fifa International · resolved market
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc37a92c681467d1ebd16020a2855b68961f0a7c1bed2919b6a5905fb4d5dbf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 76c | 524.05$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.28 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 65c | 501.35$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.73 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…3d44backed No | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 138 | 13%18 W · 120 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 24c | 440.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.22 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Yes | 75c | 333.33$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 132 | 68.2%90 W · 42 L | +20.0wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 21c | 264.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.54 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed No | 77c | 152.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 77c | 121$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 80c | 113.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…6128backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goalsthis page
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ shotsYes won
- Deniz Undav: 2+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 3+ goalsNo won
- Enner Valencia: 1+ assistsNo won
- Enner Valencia: 1+ goalsNo won
- Enner Valencia: 2+ goalsNo won
- Enner Valencia: 3+ shotsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ assistsYes won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 3+ shotsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ shotsYes won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on targetYes won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ shotsYes won
- Maximilian Beier: 2+ assistsNo won
- Nick Woltemade: 2+ assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.