Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492ec0917932cef39b0a03d8a3cadb277babbc6fcfa174abf9205bcad2a6432b

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	74c	1,123$834 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$289.1	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b29…556ebacked Yes	27c	1,060$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.45	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	23c	576$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.62	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed No	77c	568$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.64	192	52.1%100 W · 92 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	75c	524.73$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.92	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	77c	426.75$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.71	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	23c	400$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Yes	21c	280.23$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.85	112	39.3%44 W · 68 L	-10.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ea8…9e5fbacked No	79c	249.99$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	62	69.4%43 W · 19 L	+5.4wins	+0.09per pick	61cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes	19c	245.65$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.48	237	29.5%70 W · 167 L	-11.0wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9041…ddbabacked Yes	9c	202.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	113	38.9%44 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x877b…4f25backed Yes	26c	194.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54bc…d80ebacked Yes	23c	131.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	79c	100.5$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.1	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	283	37.1%105 W · 178 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd4…9cf7backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	157	27.4%43 W · 114 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	76c	98.7$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.9	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked No	77c	90$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.44	97	67%65 W · 32 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ee3…3d7fbacked Yes	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Yes	23c	80$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	272	42.3%115 W · 157 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e5f…6128backed Yes	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	7.9%5 W · 58 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa03e…727abacked Yes	23c	65.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	231	45.9%106 W · 125 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No	79c	63.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	53	86.8%46 W · 7 L	+9.6wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	79c	57$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.98	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a4…72adbacked No	79c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	65	78.5%51 W · 14 L	+8.7wins	+0.13per pick	65cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x85bf…c72bbacked Yes	26c	41.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	79c	40.45$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e24…2406backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	90	52.2%47 W · 43 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	454	72.9%331 W · 123 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed No	79c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	315	53%167 W · 148 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…2162backed No	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	61cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event