Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbf3676561e6659a4ee9f52e99a0f503fe48c017464f531375d9c428eb627754

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,863 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x336b…1233backed No	78c	6,605$5,152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,453.43	192	52.1%100 W · 92 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Yes	22c	6,561$1,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,444.38	112	39.3%44 W · 68 L	-10.2wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed No	78c	1,059$826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.03	224	49.6%111 W · 113 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa5…7cc9backed No	77c	753.48$583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.2	148	60.1%89 W · 59 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes	21c	515.68$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.52	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes	23c	500$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.45	232	51.7%120 W · 112 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…f666backed Yes	25c	405.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	95	30.5%29 W · 66 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	75c	299.69$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.92	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed No	76c	258.08$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.94	116	54.3%63 W · 53 L	+8.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	23c	250$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	21c	222$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.14	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x494e…d3dbbacked Yes	24c	208.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	389	24.4%95 W · 294 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	188	43.1%81 W · 107 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Yes	23c	195.65$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	291	38.5%112 W · 179 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked No	79c	175$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	97	67%65 W · 32 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	345	26.1%90 W · 255 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	23c	152.17$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c44…ce0cbacked Yes	22c	136.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…6655backed Yes	15c	126.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes	28c	125.6$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	78c	102.61$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.61	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	470	49.4%232 W · 238 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	283	37.1%105 W · 178 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1862…36bcbacked Yes	22c	92.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd141…205cbacked Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	8.2%4 W · 45 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x703e…9828backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…1499backed Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fa…4c3cbacked Yes	25c	80.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-63%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcbb4…ec61backed Yes	15c	66.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	130	31.5%41 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No	78c	64.1$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.1	53	86.8%46 W · 7 L	+9.6wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed No	76c	57.96$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.91	147	63.9%94 W · 53 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	77c	50.01$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	79c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…2162backed No	76c	26.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.32	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	61cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No	75c	23.11$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.78	343	57.7%198 W · 145 L	+26.2wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80e1…56a3backed No	76c	21.05$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.05	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	548	59.5%326 W · 222 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No	78c	14.19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.14	205	61%125 W · 80 L	+7.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event