MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4de4b529913565a5b6fd69a10a392205e6f1434a24278bd66735ed67db5fd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Miami Marlins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,246 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 1,922$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.47 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Houston Astros | 55c | 1,234$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 1,216$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.1 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…7449backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,153$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…a9e5backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,053$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e6…911dbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…1cc8backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 948$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4686…4d0ebacked Houston Astros | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d2…71d8backed Houston Astros | 52c | 553$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…a119backed Houston Astros | 52c | 553$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0a…5146backed Houston Astros | 52c | 540$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…f1f3backed Houston Astros | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…97f0backed Houston Astros | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd264…bb91backed Houston Astros | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 472.48$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Houston Astros | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…acecbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 448$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Houston Astros | 50c | 396.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.45 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 337.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 249.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +228.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 241$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 193.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 159.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 155$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Houston Astros | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 126.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Houston Astros | 79c | 99.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 53c | 76.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Houston Astros | 80c | 67.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Houston Astros | 72c | 63.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Houston Astros | 35c | 61.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 53.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 41.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Houston Astros | 52c | 32.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 72c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Houston Astros | 52c | 28.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 25.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Houston Astros | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Houston Astros | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Houston Astros | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…3dd1backed Houston Astros | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Houston Astros | 80c | 22.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.