MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8f76bad5ac90f2910a2a639562b887140264626bc6d03a022747fd689c45b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 2,907$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.78 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Colorado Rockies | 73c | 2,739$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 253 | 66.4%168 W · 85 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 2,342$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.05 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 1,776$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.86 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 10c | 1,034$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.8 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Colorado Rockies | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 194.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 114.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 112$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 2,550 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,382 L | -75.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 108$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 94.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 80.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 50.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Colorado Rockies | 36c | 48.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 30.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 25.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Colorado Rockies | 70c | 21.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.