MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777eb014c005cf85716e93e9b4b56d6d394a346d89bfc0a9a37fdf820c139d40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 44c | 5,105$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.42 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 4,467$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ca…5d8dbacked Over | 54c | 1,048$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 46c | 1,001$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.46 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 55c | 799.19$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.64 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 57c | 791.39$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 710.58$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Under | 72c | 556.41$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 459.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…0a9fbacked Over | 47c | 438.51$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.51 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 385.22$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Over | 28c | 336.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…42b0backed Over | 57c | 268.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 58c | 235.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 63c | 233.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 42c | 232.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 216.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 63c | 208.52$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 38c | 158.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 38c | 145.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 59c | 142.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 130.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 59c | 116.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 60c | 115.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 45c | 113.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 29c | 110.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 36c | 106.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 37c | 104.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 44c | 66.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 29c | 66.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Over | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 47c | 59.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 47c | 55.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 54c | 52.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d8…b9d4backed Under | 43c | 51.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 58c | 51.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 46c | 50.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1478…80debacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 44.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 36c | 41.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Over | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 30.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 41c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 48c | 25.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Under | 65c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.