MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf9add1fbcba90ae668a68167f38619a37d0399c8252f083a6e33524cb98399c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 6,894$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,065.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 5,893$3,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,550.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 2,591$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 59c | 1,671$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.85 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…0464backed Over | 51c | 1,156$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 49c | 675$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.25 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 526.52$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 59c | 315.06$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 35c | 299$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Under | 35c | 205.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 180$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 65c | 168$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 59c | 141.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 27c | 141.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 65c | 125.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 70c | 117.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 63c | 86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 34c | 77.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 66c | 71.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 67c | 61.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 29c | 53.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 51c | 50.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 67c | 50.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 67c | 50.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 66c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 80c | 40.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 59c | 27.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 45c | 25.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…7767backed Over | 66c | 22.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…978cbacked Over | 66c | 21.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 20.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…2fbabacked Over | 66c | 17.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 77c | 14.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.