TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 106.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,736 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x211d…3ab7backed Over56c870.62$487 inLost-$486.775158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under44c774.27$341 inWon+$433.592,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Over55c200$110 inLost-$11047359.2%280 W · 193 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Under45c193.05$87 inWon+$106.1837842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c120.65$60 inLost-$60.3337665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under42c116.07$49 inWon+$6779650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under45c72.73$33 inWon+$4024841.9%104 W · 144 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbc1…01fcbacked Over56c64.33$36 inLost-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked Under48c60.55$29 inWon+$31.4925850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over52c52.6$27 inLost-$27.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7898…b60dbacked Over40c50$20 inLost-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4c9…4ce4backed Over60c48.8$29 inLost-$29.281546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under50c45.74$23 inWon+$22.9555444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.