Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc2622e78aafbb70d618199f5b8ad1af43d3e151d99821bbe649471a87bc4d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- alohasquadof Yellow Submarine, alohasquad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 2,118$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.06 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed alohasquad | 47c | 1,066$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.59 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed alohasquad | 56c | 1,029$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.48 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed alohasquad | 62c | 938.71$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.71 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Yellow Submarine | 54c | 678.39$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed alohasquad | 41c | 600$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.99 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked Yellow Submarine | 31c | 586.89$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.74 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 533.48$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.66 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…99c9backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 509.88$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed alohasquad | 47c | 466.36$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.46 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked alohasquad | 54c | 419.67$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.67 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…aa06backed alohasquad | 46c | 406.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed alohasquad | 62c | 383.18$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.18 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Yellow Submarine | 58c | 377.73$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…e1abbacked alohasquad | 61c | 322$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed alohasquad | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed alohasquad | 45c | 299.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yellow Submarine | 46c | 298.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 259.08$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…15fcbacked Yellow Submarine | 59c | 237.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed alohasquad | 28c | 233.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed alohasquad | 52c | 230$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Yellow Submarine | 64c | 227.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.15 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed alohasquad | 45c | 220.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…fc19backed Yellow Submarine | 46c | 181.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed alohasquad | 74c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed alohasquad | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 105.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ac45backed Yellow Submarine | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked alohasquad | 66c | 104.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 102.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked alohasquad | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…b686backed Yellow Submarine | 40c | 93.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed alohasquad | 80c | 84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…41c9backed Yellow Submarine | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed alohasquad | 22c | 79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 76.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed alohasquad | 47c | 72.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Yellow Submarine | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yellow Submarine | 19c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…4d37backed alohasquad | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed alohasquad | 38c | 66.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed alohasquad | 37c | 61.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Yellow Submarine | 63c | 61.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yellow Submarine | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 54.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked alohasquad | 59c | 54.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked alohasquad | 46c | 48.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…f788backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 37.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yellow Submarine | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yellow Submarine | 62c | 32.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…e6cabacked Yellow Submarine | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…32dfbacked alohasquad | 55c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked alohasquad | 54c | 25.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…75f6backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yellow Submarine | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 24.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yellow Submarine | 53c | 22.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…2374backed alohasquad | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yellow Submarine | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed alohasquad | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs alohasquad (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs alohasquad - Game 2 Winner alohasquad won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.